Energy Transition in Taiwan

Energy Transition in Taiwan: Current Situation and Goals

Taiwan is ongoing its energy transition. The transiton will highlight a rapid growth of renewable electricity capacity and generation, but many other sectors such as transportation, building, and industry sectors will also be involved. The goal of this transition process is to ultimately meet the Taiwan's own Intended National Determined Contribution published in 2015, which stated that compared to 2005, annual carbon emission should be reduced by 20% by 2030. This is a reduction of about 53 Million tonnes of CO₂ eq.

Compared to other East Asia countries, this goal is quite ambitious. For example, South Korea pledged to tame its annual carbon emission to around 535 Million tonnes of CO₂ eq, which is roughly the same level as 2005. However, many of the policy goals in different sectors still lack integration between governmental departments and also concrete measures before 2020.

Energy Transition in Taiwan: Electricity Sector

Renewable Capacity Expansion Plans

The following sources of renewable energy are planned to increase capacity significantly by 2025: solar, offshore wind, biogas, onshore wind, and geothermal. Below is a chart of the goals of expansion, adopted from Renewables are blooming; is the power system ready? A Prognosis on Residual Load Flexibility in Taiwan by 2025.

Type of Renewables	Current Capacity (as of 15.11.2017)	Planned Capacity by 2025
Solar	1.286GW	20GW
Onshore Wind	0.682GW	1.2GW
Offshore Wind	0.136GW	5.5GW
Biogas	0.741GW	0.813GW
Geothermal	0GW	0.2GW

Goals of Electricity Generation and Carbon Emission Intensity

The goal of renewable sources in electricity generation share is 20% by 2025. Meanwhile, coal use is to be reduced to 30%, compared to 45% in 2016. The carbon emission intensity of electricity generation is to be reduced from 0.529 kg CO₂ eq/kWh in 2016 to 0.395 kg CO₂ eq/kWh by 2025.

In the recent years, coal use in electrcity generation stagnates at around 45%. The government promised that the share of coal use in electricty generation peaks in 2017, and by 2020 it will be tamed at no more than 43%.

Prognosis of Residual Load and Re-dispatchment Schemes

According to the International Energy Agency, there are four phases of integrating variable renewables onto the grid. With about 1% of electricity generated by solar and wind, Taiwan is currently in the first phase, when grid integration is still not a major problem for renewable energy sources.

However, if 20GW of solar is installed as planned by 2025, the residual load curve will change drastically. By then, conventional power plants will have to vary their output accordingly. Also, the risk of congestion in transmission lines must be analyze beforehand, and weak spots in the power system must be strengthened in prior.

Below is the power output curve a possible re-dispatchment scheme may result to by summer 2025.The hard coal power plants might have to ramp more flexibly inthe future in order to adjust to the residual load variations, and this result to a reduction of coal use to around 26% in this scenario. The carbon emission intensity in this scenario was 0.396 kg CO₂ eq/kWh, very close to the policy goal.

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While wind power is weaker in summer, it will be more stronger in winter. Since the solar radiation in southern Taiwan remains strong even in winter, the first negative residaul load events would probably happen in winter. By then Taiwan would have to start dealing with phase three problems described by IEA.