Energy Access Figures
Overview
In the article at hand energy access and investment needs figures from various sources, published at different times, are summarized. This article is only meant to give a rough overview of existing reliable sources concerning energy access for electricity and cooking energy and investment needed to provide universal access to energy, on a worldwide and regional scale. The presented sources use different input data, different methodologies and different regional aggregates for their calculations and estimates, thus a comparison of calculation and estimation outcomes is difficult and is beyond the scope of this article. In order to enable the access of the original data, in the last section of this article, all the covered sources are declared.
Electricity Access
Lack of Access to Electricity Worldwide (Absolute Numbers)
| Source | Present | Future |
|
International Institute for Applied Systems |
2010 - 1.4 billion |
|
|
International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (IEA WEO) 2013[2] |
2011 – 1.257 billion |
2030 – 969 million |
|
IEA WEO 2014[3] |
2012 - 1, 285 billion |
|
|
IEA WEO 2012[4] |
2010 - 1.267 billion |
2030 - 991 million |
|
IEA WEO 2011[5] |
2009 - 1.317 billion |
2030 – 1,036 million |
|
Practical Action 2012[6] |
2009/2010 - 1.5 billion |
2030 - 900 million |
|
United National General Assembly (UN GA) 2010[7] |
2009/2010 – 1.5 billion |
|
|
World Health Orgnaisation (WHO) 2009[8] |
2009 - 1.5 billion |
|
|
UN Secretary-General´s Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change (AGECC) 2010[9] |
2009 - About 1.5 billion |
|
Lack of Access to Electricity Regional (Absolute Numbers)
|
Source |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Developing Asia |
Latin America | |||
|
IEA WEO 2014 [3] |
622 mio |
2040 530 mio |
2012 620 mio |
|
2012 23 mio |
|
|
IEA WEO 2013 |
2011 599 mio |
2030 645 mio |
2011 615 mio |
2030 324 mio |
2011 24 mio |
2030 0 mio |
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 589 mio |
2030 655 mio |
2010 628 mio |
2030 334 mio |
2010 29 mio |
2030 0 mio |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 586 mio |
2030 645 mio |
2009 675 mio |
2030 376 mio |
2009 31 mio |
2030 10 mio |
Access to Electricity Worldwide (% of Population)
|
Source |
Present |
Future |
|||
|
United Nations Sustainable Energy for All (UN SE4All) 2013[10] |
Total 2010: 83% |
Rural 2010: 70% |
Urban 2010: 95% |
|
|
|
University Denver, Paterns of Potential Human Progress (PPHP) 2013[11] |
Total 2010: 78% |
Total 2035: 89% |
Total 2060: 95% |
||
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
Total 2010: 81% |
Total 2030: 88% |
|||
|
UN Energy |
Total ???: 72% |
|
|||
| IEA WEO 2014[3] | total 2012: 82% | ||||
Access to Electricity Regional (% of Population)
|
Source |
Africa |
Asia |
Latin America | ||||
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
Total |
|
|
| |||
|
Rural |
|
|
| ||||
|
Urban |
|
|
| ||||
|
|
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Developing Asia |
Latin America | ||||
|
IEA WEO 2014[3] |
2012 32% |
2040 |
2012 83% |
|
2012 95% |
| |
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 32% |
2030 52% |
2010 82% |
2030 92% |
2010 94% |
2030 100% | |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 31% |
2030 51% |
2009 81% |
2030 91% |
2009 93% |
2030 98% | |
Access to Clean Cooking Energy
People Relying on Traditional Biomass Worldwide (Absolute Numbers)
| Source |
Present | Future |
| IEA WEO 2014[3] |
2,679 mio |
| Source | Present | Future |
|
IEA WEO 2013 |
2011 – 2.642 billion1 |
2030 – 2.524 billion |
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 - 2.588 billion |
2030 - 2.595 billion |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 – 2.662 billion |
2030 – 2.715 billion |
|
IIASA GEA 2012 |
2009 about 2.7 billion |
(Based on IEA 2010) |
|
Practical Action 2012 |
2010 – nearly 3 billion |
2030 – 3 billion |
|
Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves (GACC)[12] |
2009 (solid fuels) about 3 billion |
|
|
WHO 2011[13] |
2009 (solid fuels) about 3 billion |
|
|
UN Energy[14] |
2013 (solid fuels) about 3 billion |
|
|
AGECC 2010 |
2009 (solid fuels) appr. 3 billion |
|
|
UN GA 2010 |
2009/2010 - 3 billion |
1 Increased number of people relying on traditional use of biomass (from WEO 2012 to WEO 2013) is caused by population number upward revision for India.
People Relying on Traditional Biomass Regional (Absolute Numbers)
|
Source |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Developing Asia |
Latin America | |||
|
IEA WEO 2014[3] |
2012 728 mio |
2040 650 mio |
2012 1,875 mio |
|
2012 68 mio |
|
|
IEA WEO 2013 |
2011 696 mio |
2030 881 mio |
2011 1,869 mio |
2030 1,582 mio |
2011 68 mio |
2030 53 mio |
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 696 mio |
2030 883 mio |
2010 1,814 mio |
2030 1,640 mio |
2010 65 mio |
2030 62 mio |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 653 mio |
2030 918 mio |
2009 1,921 mio |
2030 1,769 mio |
2009 85 mio |
2030 79 mio |
Access to Non-solid-biofuels Worldwide (% of Population)
| Source | Present | Future | |||
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
Total 2010: 59% |
Rural 2010: 35% |
Urban 2010: 84% |
|
|
Access to Non-solid Fuels Regional (% of Population)
|
Source |
Africa |
Asia |
Latin America | ||
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
Total |
|
|
| |
|
Rural |
|
|
| ||
|
Urban |
|
|
| ||
Cooking with Traditional Biomass Worldwide (% of Population)
| Source | Present | Future | |||
| IEA WEO 2014 |
Total 2012: 38% |
||||
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
Total 2010: 49% |
Total 2030: 39% |
| ||
► Solid Biomass Portal on energypedia
Cooking with Traditional Biomass Regional (% of Population)
|
Source |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Developing Asia |
Latin America | |||
|
IEA WEO 2014[3] |
2012 80%
|
|
2012 51% |
|
2012 15% |
|
|
IEA WEO 2012 |
2010 81% |
2030 65% |
2010 51% |
2030 39% |
2010 14% |
2030 11% |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
2009 78% |
2030 67% |
2009 54% |
2030 41% |
2009 19% |
2030 14% |
Household Use of Modern Forms of Energy (% of Population)
| Source | Present | Future | |||
|
PPHP 2013 |
Total 2010: 57% |
Total 2035: 78% |
Total 2060: 88% | ||
Mortality from Household Air Pollution
n the year 2012, household air pollution from cooking with solid fuels was responsible for 4.3 million deaths. This makes this risk factor the largest environmental contributor to ill health. The importance of household air pollution as a public health threat varies drastically according to the level of development: in low- and middle-income countries, household air pollution is responsible for almost 10% of the mortality, while the same risk factor is only responsible for 0.2% of deaths in high-income countries.[15]
Total Deaths by Region (absolute numbers)
| Global |
Africa |
South East Asia |
Europe |
America |
Eastern Mediterranean |
Western Pacific |
| 4,3 mio |
600,000 |
1,69 mio |
99,000 |
81,000 |
200,000 |
1,62 mio |
Deaths Attributable to HAP by Age and Sex
Children < 5yr: 534,00 (13%)
Women >25yr: 1,767,000 (41%)
Men >25 yr: 1,991,000 (46%)
Although women experience higher personal exposure levels than men and therefore higher relative risk to develop adverse health outcomes due to their greater involvement in daily cooking activities, the absolute burden is larger in men due to larger underlying disease rates in men.
Necessary Investment for Universal Access to Modern Energy Services
Additional Average Annual Investment Needed for Total / Universal Energy Access
|
Source |
Annually |
comments |
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
33.9 billion USD |
|
|
|
from 2010 34 billion USD (in total 1 trillion USD (296 billion USD in new policies) 640 billion USD) |
|
|
AGECC 2010 |
35-40 billion USD |
|
|
Pachauri et al 2012[16] |
65 – 86 billion USD |
(only grid–access and LPG-like cooking) |
Electricity
Additional average annual investment needed for total universal electricity access regional, in billion USD
|
Source |
Global |
Africa |
Asia |
Latin America |
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
30.1 bn USD |
SSA 19.1 bn USD |
EA & Oce 0.4 bn USD SA 9.2 bn USD SEA 1.3 bn USD |
|
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
30.5 bn USD |
SSA 18.5 bn USD |
Dev. A. 11.5 bn USD only India 6.4 bn USD |
0.3 bn USD |
|
Ruijven et al. 2012[17] |
From 2010 - 2030 238 – 400 bn USD |
SSA 6.1 – 10.2 bn USD |
Asia 1.4 – 2.5 bn USD |
LA 4.3 – 7.1 bn USD |
SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa, Dev. A.: Developing Asia, EA: East Asia, Oce: Oceania, SA: Southern Asia, SEA: South-Eastern Asia
Electricity Access for All - Proposed share of necessary annual investment needed per technology
| Source | Technology | Investment needed per year |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
|
|
Cooking Energy
Additional average annual investment needed to achieve universal access to clean cooking facilities, regional, in billion USD
|
Source |
Global |
Africa |
Asia |
Latin America |
|
UN SE4All 2013 |
3.8 bn USD |
SSA 1.1 bn USD ME & NAf 0.01 bn USD
|
EA & Oce 0.9 bn USD SA 1.2 bn USD SEA 0.4 bn USD |
0.2 bn USD |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
3.5 bn USD |
SSA 1.1 bn USD |
Dev. A. 2.3 bn USD only India 0.8 bn USD only China 0.8 bn USD |
0.2 bn USD |
SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa, Dev. A.: Developing Asia, EA: East Asia, Oce: Oceania, SA: Southern Asia, SEA: South-Eastern Asia, ME: Middle East, NAf: North Africa
Clean Cooking Facilities for All - Proposed share of necessary annual investment needed per technology
| Source | Technology | Necessary annual investment |
|
IEA WEO 2011 |
|
|
Further Information
- ↑ Source: IIASA GEA 2012: Global Energy Assessment- Towards a Sustainable Future, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- ↑ Source: OECD/IEA (2013): World Energy Outlook 2013
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 OECD/IEA (2014): World Energy Outlook 2014 http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2014/
- ↑ Source: OECD/IEA (2012): World Energy Outlook 2012 http://www.iea.org/papers/2011/weo2011_energy_for_all.pdf
- ↑ Source: OECD/IEA (2011): Energy for All – Financing Access for the Poor. Special early excerpt of the World Energy Outlook 2011. Updated estimates of the OECD/IEA 2010fckLRhttp://www.iea.org/papers/2011/weo2011_energy_for_all.pdffckLR
- ↑ Source: Practical Action (2012): Poor People’s Energy Outlook: http://practicalaction.org/ppeo2012-report
- ↑ Source: UN General Assembly - International Year for Sustainable Energy for All, 11 November 2010, Sixty-fifth session, Second Committee
- ↑ Source: WHO – The Energy Access Situation in developing countries. A Review Focusing on the Least Developed Countries and Sub-Saharan Africa (November 2009)
- ↑ AGECC Report 2010: Energy for a sustainable future: http://www.un-energy.org/publications/558-agecc-report-energy-for-a-sustainable-future
- ↑ Source: UN SE4All Global Tracking Report, Data based on IEA 2012, the data is based on National household surveys; WB global electrification database, 2012 ; WHO household energy database, 2012
- ↑ Source: PPhP (2014), Patterns of Potential Human Progress, Volume 4, Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures University Denver
- ↑ Source: GACC, Issue – Environmnet, [online] http://www.cleancookstoves.org/our-work/the-issues/ last accessed 11/11/2013
- ↑ Source: WHO, Indoor air pollution and health, September 2011 [online] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs292/en/
- ↑ http://www.un-energy.org/cluster/energy_access
- ↑ WHO - Global Health Observatory Data http://www.who.int/gho/phe/indoor_air_pollution/burden_text/en/
- ↑ Source: Pauchauri et al (2013), Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030, Environmental Research Letters 8
- ↑ Source: B.J. Ruijven, J. Schers, D.P. van Vuuren: Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in devloping countries, (2012), Energy 38 386-397
